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    CHARTSMITH Weekly Market Update    


Welcome to the paper trading market update for the week of July 17th, 2009. 

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I'll just say it--"Wow!"--ok, I had to get that out because there are some fabulous things happening in the markets and we're excited, to say the least, not only for the financial growth, but to also have friends like you to share in these great opportunities with!!  Cotton continues to progress and we have a few more markets "in the works", plus a new addition to our watchlist this week, so let's get going...


 Cotton  
Cotton closed up this week at 64.06 cents/lb.  That's a 3.31 cent gain from our entry point of 60.75 cents/lb.  Keep your stops in place.  Profit to date: + $1,655.00 per contract.


To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CT/C9


 Eurodollar
The Eurodollar closed up again this week at 99.4650 basis points.  Wow! This market is shaping up beautifully and our risk is getting smaller as it moves higher (nearer to 100 basis pts.)!  Keep watching...

Read more about this rare event in our special report, EURODOLLARS—the Perfect Storm?.


To view the chart go to: 
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GE/99


 Lumber

Lumber has continued "falling" this week with a September 09 contract closing price of $185.20 per 1,000BoardFeet on Friday. 
The weekly and monthly charts are showing a strong longer term downtrend into further multi-year low pricing levels despite recent optimistic housing data released this week. Keep watching...


To view the chart go to:  http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/99


Natural Gas
September 09 Henry Hub Natural Gas closed out the week above the 18-day moving average line at $3.816/mmBtu. This closing was above recent support levels of $3.72 & $3.59.  Is this the start of a base? We'll keep a lookout on the tools for confirmation as time moves forward. Stay tuned...

To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG_/99


Orange Juice

September 09 FCOJ closed at 103.65 on Friday.  The MACD lines crossed through the zero pivot point as well showing increased bullish tone.  This market is still trading in the Low(wholesale) zone and a retracement from this week's closing could bring a coordinated buy signal.  We'll keep watching for an entry point to develop...

To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/OJ/99


 U.S. Dollar Index 
 

A new addition to our watchlist this week is the US Dollar Index.  The US Dollar has been seen moving into multi-year lows in recent months. 

The U.S. Dollar Index is represented in Points.  1 point = $10 USD

Please view the chart by clicking on the address below.  Notice the price channel that has formed over the past 30 days.  This week we watched the trading range drop below this level to possibly test the support level at 78.83pts established June 2nd of this year.  Keep watching for a formation to develop.

Note: As we stated in ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future, Shawna & I absolutely love the tangible and consumable commodity futures markets, however, we also keep our eyes on other markets as well such as the "currencies" and "financials".  Although these markets have specific differences, the way the tools actuate to give confirmation of a price base in the Low Zone is very much the same.  So whether or not you decide to use real money in your trading we urge you to at least paper trade this market as it moves along. 
I know you'll find this practice to be invaluable in making trade decisions now and in the future!

To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=US&market=DX&cterm=99



ChartSmith monitors commodity futures markets in the Low (wholesale) Zone for the Buy Low—Sell High profit opportunity and the High (retail) Zone for the Sell High—Buy Low profit opportunity. Complete details for these and other exciting low risk, high profit trade setups are included in, ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future
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Remember our commodity trading mentor, Ken Roberts, whom we wrote about in ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future?  Well, this week's commodity recipe comes from an "incident" that occurred with Ken years ago and we'd like to share this wonderful story with you!

$$$$$$  The Million Dollar Cake  $$$$$$  as told by Ken Roberts

In 1987 at a benefit auction for a non-profit foundation, we enjoyed a pot luck lunch before the festivities began.

     One of the cakes on the dessert table disappeared before I could run back for another piece.  Several other people stood there disappointed, with empty plates too.  We all looked at the platter, scraped clean, that just a few minutes earlier held The Million Dollar Cake--the best cake any of us had ever tasted.

     I wasn't giving up, so I asked around and located its maker--a lady named Lori.  She was lovely, soft-spoken, and demure.  This'll be easy, I thought to myself.

     I could tell Lori was used to this kind of reaction to her cake.  She explained that it was her grandmother's strictly secret recipe, saved only for very special occasions.

     I was so diplomatic about it.  But she didn't budge.  Not an inch.

     So then I begged:  "Come on, please give me the recipe.  Please!?"

     Nothing. Not even a smile.  I couldn't believe it!

     Later, as the auction progressed, my mind was still scrambling for a way to get my hands on the recipe for that cake.  And then it hit me...

     A book autographed by its author had just been auctioned.  In the pause after the gavel fell, I stood up and announced, "I'll give $50 for the recipe to The Million Dollar Cake we had at lunch today."

     Silence spread over the room.  It took a moment for people to catch on.  Some began smiling and looking at Lori--sweet, demure, Stonewall Lori.  I kept my eyes on the auctioneer who smelled an opportunity to raise some extra money for this benefit. 

     Someone whispered to him, explaining that it was up to Lori whether I donated $50 to the foundation or not.  
 
     The auctioneer turned his eyes on Lori.  Now all eyes were on her, except mine.

     And then came a voice from the other side of the room:  "Seventy-five dollars!"

     "A hundred dollars," I said calmly, looking straight at the auctioneer.

     As if at a tennis match, all eyes swung toward Lori again.

     Silence.  No response.

     After what seemed to be several long minutes, Stonewall cracked!  A little smile shown through.

     Taking this as his cue, the auctioneer didn't hesitate:  "Going once, going twice, going three times. Sold! To the man in the cowboy hat!"

     When the auction concluded, Lori walked over and handed me a folded sheet of personal stationery.

   "Here's the recipe."  She smiled sweetly.


$$$$$$$ To view the yummy details of The Million Dollar Cake Recipe simply go to Shawna's Commodity Recipes page. $$$$$$$



 Quote(s) of the Week

If it doesn't move you towards your dreams and goals, don't do it.  ~Dakota Jones

Every decision we make, everything we do, is just a choice.  ~Danny Wheeler



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Thanks for joining us for this week's paper trading market update.  As always, we appreciate hearing your thoughts and ideas, and your trading successes and learnings.  Please feel free to email us anytime at
scott@mychartsmith.com.   

Enjoy your weekend and God Bless!

Scott and the ChartSmith Team

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Please read our IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our commodity futures workshops, website, or newsletter shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed during the workshops or on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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