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    CHARTSMITH Weekly Market Update    


Welcome to the paper trading market update for the week of July 24th, 2009. 

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Hello fellow traders!  

July is a vacation month for many of the floor traders.  It's been a bit on the quiet side in the marketplace this week but as we move closer to August we'll soon be seeing more activity coming back into the markets.   This translates into more volume of trades and increased open interest with broader participation.  And that's something to always keep in mind because it's ultimately the flow of money in or out of the marketplace that drives prices of world commodities up or down. 

We have some exciting potential trade set-ups to look at this week.  So let's jump in...

Cotton #2 Cotton  
On Tuesday July 21st the Cotton market's price declined sharply taking out stops at 63.76 cents/lb.  As mentioned a couple of weeks ago, we made a decision before putting on this trade that we wouldn't give it much room-to-roam because the buy signal confirmation came in near the top of the wholesale zone, which effectively added to downside risk. 
 
Closed Profits = $1,505.00 per contract  (exit price of 63.76 minus entry price of 60.75 equals 3.01 X $500/cent)

We'll keep watching Cotton as it slips back into the Low Zone...

Note: Our stops were already in place with our broker (on the floor) when Cotton made its sharp break on Tuesday.  Even though the market fell "limit" by that afternoon's session our positions were liquidated because the market traded through the stops orders--this is why we always say to plan your trade and stick with your plan as the market progresses in your direction; including utilizing stops!  Money mouth

To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CT/C9


 Eurodollar
The Eurodollar closed again this week at 99.4650 basis points.  A price channel is developing.  Stay tuned...

Read more about this rare event in our special report, EURODOLLARS—the Perfect Storm?.


To view the chart go to: 
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GE/99


 Lumber
Lumber closed out the week at $188/1,000 Board Feet, using the $180 area as support on the chart.  We'll keep watching for a trade setup...
 

To view the chart go to:  http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/99


Natural Gas
September 09 Henry Hub Natural Gas closed this week at $3.861/mmBtu. 

Notice Friday's closing price was above the 4-day moving average line and the 4, 9, & 18 day lines are coordinating beautifully on the chart.  Watching the MACD for further confirmation...

To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG_/99


Orange Juice
September 09 FCOJ closed at 96.30/cents per pound on Friday. 

Calculating a 50% retracement using the recent low at 75.65 and the high at 104.85 gives us 90.25 cents per pound.  A further sell-off to the 90 cent area is a possibility; this area also represents support.  If the MACD lines hold above the zero pivot point a solid buy signal confirmation will be completed in the next couple of weeks.  We'll keep watching for an entry point to develop...

To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/OJ/99


 U.S. Dollar Index 
 
 
The US Dollar Index traded into new lows this week with a closing price on Friday at 78.895 points.  Will it continue to fall deeper into the Low Zone or begin a base-out at this level?  We'll keep monitoring for a possible long-side entry point to develop! 

The U.S. Dollar Index is represented in Points.  1 point = $10 USD


To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=US&market=DX&cterm=99


ChartSmith monitors commodity futures markets in the Low (wholesale) Zone for the Buy Low—Sell High profit opportunity and the High (retail) Zone for the Sell High—Buy Low profit opportunity. Complete details for these and other exciting low risk, high profit trade setups are included in, ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future.

 Quote of the Week

Don't call it a mistake, call it education.  ~Thomas Edison


Smile


Thanks for joining us for this week's paper trading market update.  As always, we appreciate hearing your thoughts and ideas, and your trading successes and learnings.  Please feel free to email us anytime at
scott@mychartsmith.com.   

Until next week, our best to you!

Scott and the ChartSmith Team


PS: with the US Dollar Index falling this week we thought you may find this little story to be of real value!

  Buying a Train Ticket, and Being Taken for a $23 Quadrillion Ride 

By: Peter Applebome 
The New York Times


Lydia Alcock doesn’t seem like the kind of kid who would run up a $23 quadrillion bill on her Visa Buxx card.


She is a seemingly responsible sophomore at Johns Hopkins University interested in psychology and museum studies. Typical charges to her card include $5.26 for pizza, $21.15 for flip-flops with her sorority’s Greek letters on them and $1.47 for raspberry iced tea. Her father got her the card when she was 13 so that Lydia could learn to be responsible about money; a grandmother trained at the London School of Economics is something of an obsessive about frugality.


And, yet, when Ms. Alcock clicked on her account earlier this month, there it was: $23,148,855,308,184,500. Plus a $20 negative balance fee from Wachovia Bank, which under the circumstances, seemed pretty reasonable.


But wait. It turns out this was not for a splurge on iPods, iTunes, iPhones, Juicy Couture or the gross world product, but for a single train ride (off-peak!) on Metro-North Railroad from Grand Central to Goldens Bridge. The usual cost is $10.


Ms. Alcock looked. She looked again. She gasped. She laughed. She shouted to her father: “Dad, you need to come here. Right now.” And then after realizing, to her chagrin, that she owed the staggering sum, not that she was the recipient of a tidy little windfall, she typed into Google: “How to say really big numbers,” and cut and pasted $23,148,855,308,184,500. It read: “twenty-three quadrillion, one hundred forty-eight trillion, eight hundred fifty-five billion, three hundred eight million, one hundred eighty-four thousand, five hundred dollars.”


In the end, phew, Ms. Alcock will not have to spend the rest of her life chipping away at the bill. Instead she joins more than 12,000 Visa customers (or “fewer than 13,000” as the company puts it) who for a day seemed to be the biggest debtors in world history.


Ms. Alcock, 18, discovered the problem when she returned from a trip to Baltimore and got an e-mail notice that she had overdrawn her account, something she had never done before. She worried that someone had obtained her card number until she went to her account and realized that $23 quadrillion was probably beyond even the most energetic credit card thief.


Her father, Martin, who runs Naked Earth, a company that sells environmentally friendly products like vegan cheese and fallen palm leaves used as plates, called Wachovia. And after waiting on hold for a half-hour, he got the word that, yes, there had been some kind of error that was being corrected. The next day, the $20 fee was still there, but then that disappeared too.


Visa said there had been “a temporary programming error” during a regularly scheduled systems upgrade that caused some transactions on prepaid cards to be inaccurately posted. “No one was actually charged $23 quadrillion,” a spokeswoman, Elvira Swanson, said reassuringly. The company said the “technical glitch” had no financial impact on Visa cardholders.


Victims have popped up on the Internet or in news stories, including Josh Muszynski, 22, of Manchester, N.H., who ran up his bill buying Camel cigarettes at a Mobil station. Others include a diner at Applebee’s and a shopper at CVS. “My lectures about financial responsibility appear to have failed: yesterday she charged $23,148,855,308,184,500.00 at the drugstore,” went one online post. “Well, at least she wasn’t texting. Those charges really add up,” added another. “I always said when they started charging $23 quadrillion a pack, I’d quit,” read a third.


It was perhaps unfortunate that some of those affected used the Visa Buxx card, which is pitched as “the ultimate tool for teaching your teen financial responsibility with peace of mind.” But Ms. Alcock said the incident was a helpful reminder about the importance of checking those statements — chances are not every error is as conspicuous as a $23 quadrillion train ride. Her father said he was a bit disappointed that the bank never apologized or explained what happened, perhaps figuring the relief of not being $23 quadrillion in the red was balm enough.


The story, a perfect silly-season summer news story, got surprisingly little traction in the news universe. This could be a reflection of how hard it is to compete in the cavalcade of Michael Jackson/Sarah Palin/Randy Republican/man-on-the-moon news events.


Or maybe, given all the billion- and even trillion-dollar figures being thrown around for bailouts and economic dislocation and the rest, a quadrillion just isn’t what it used to be. That would be a shame. After all, updated for inflation, the old saying is still true: a quadrillion here and a quadrillion there and pretty soon you’re talking real money.


This story originally appeared in the The New York Times

Please read our IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our commodity futures workshops, website, or newsletter shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed during the workshops or on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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