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    CHARTSMITH Weekly Market Update       

Greetings fellow traders! 

Welcome to the "paper trading" market update for the week of August 7th, 2009. 

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Major price swings were seen in the marketplace this opening week of August.  Volatility exacerbated investors fears of supply & demand issues and global economic concerns.  Today's commodity markets are known for this type of behaviour and this is why we continue to focus on the technicals such as the zones, the trends, and the tools & indicators. 

Of course, this is one of the great things about commodity futures--the ability for the market to exhibit huge price movement in a short time is the open door to stellar opportunities!  With that said, let's jump in and take a look...  
 



Cotton  
December Cotton futures closed Friday at 62.43 cents per pound.  MACD 12 & 26 are holding above the zero pivot point but the 4-9-& 18 day MA lines are not coordinated yet.  Keep watching for a possible long-side entry point to develop.

Note:  December Cotton is still trying to set up a buy signal.  Use extreme caution when trading this market due to its proximity to the Mid-Zone.  Remember, plan your trade and trade your plan!

To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CT/C9


 Eurodollar
The Eurodollar closed out the week at 99.50 basis points.  A price channel is in place. We're still watching for an entry signal to develop utilizing the tools...

>>Another consideration for entering this market on the short-side is to position a sell order just below the bottom of the channel.  When the Eurodollar falls through this pre-planned point, short positions are initiated at market.  Protective stops can be positioned above the top of the channel to control risk...Review Sideways Channels & Controlling Risk with a Stop Loss (pages 88 & 132 in the ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future wealthbook.)

Note:  although this market is near all-time highs and our trading plan includes selling the Eurodollar short, please keep in mind that this is not the same as the RSI Sell High-Buy Low trade setup.  This is, for all intents and purposes, the Buy Low-Sell High trade setup turned upside down because we can quantify maximum risk to 100 basis points which is hypothetically the same as a market in the Low Zone going to absolute zero.  

For further details see the special report, EURODOLLARS—the Perfect Storm?.


To view the chart go to: 
http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GE/99


 Lumber
September 09 Lumber closed this week at $197.10 per 1,000 Board Feet.

The $180 support area is still firmly in place on the chart.  4-9-& 18 day MA lines have coordinated.  Watching for MACD to confirm longside entry.  Stay tuned...
 

To view the chart go to:  http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/99


Natural Gas
October 09 Henry Hub Natural Gas closed this week at $3.939/mmBtu on GLOBEX.  The MA lines are coordinated and MACD 12/26 are moving closer to the zero pivot point. 

We'll keep watching for a buy signal...


To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG_/A9 


Orange Juice
The front month of FCOJ, based on Open Interest, is now the November contract.  November closed this week at 104.90 cents per pound on the NYBOT.

Crazy OJ! No, I'm not talking about the ex-football player/felon...I'm talking about November 2009 FCOJ.  It bounced off of its 50% @ 93.50 and ran up all week to a high of 105.50. 

Hurricane season on the east coast has been quiet this year due to the weather anomaly, El Nino.  But it's far from over; in fact we are now entering the strong season for hurricanes.

Wait for a pull-back and watch the tools for a buy signal soon!

Keep watching for a long-side entry point to develop...

To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/OJ/B9 


SUGAR
Note that this is the Sell High - Buy Low profit opportunity as outlined in the ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future wealthbook...
March 2010 Sugar closed into new highs this week at 22.03 cents per pound with an RSI ranking of 86.76.  This pricing represents 28-year highs!

After market closing on Thursday the Relative Strength Index signalled well above 80.  With an e-mail to our broker the same afternoon, our request was to buy the 21.00 strike March 2010 Put Option during Friday's option market opening in New York.  The 21.00 strike price option was at-the-money on Thursday's closing.  Friday morning we received a fill price at 2.22 points (1 point = $1,120) as the market progressed higher, equalling a purchase price of $2,486.40 per option.  This is the
first layer-in.

Profit/loss to date at Friday's closing: <$33.60> per Put Option

As of Friday's closing the RSI ranking has increased to 86.76.  We'll be looking to add a second layer at the beginning of the week...

For detailed information review the Buy Low-Sell High trade setup as outlined in the ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future wealthbook (Chapter 11, Putting it all Together).  Also, Please see the recently released SPECIAL REPORT, Sugar-How Sweet It Is for further information.


To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=SU&market=SB&cterm=30 


U.S. Dollar Index   
The US Dollar Index closed up the week at 79.11 points after the release of interest rate talk.  Will it continue to fall deeper into the Low Zone or begin to base-out from here?  We'll keep monitoring for a possible long-side entry point to develop! 

To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=US&market=DX&cterm=99



ChartSmith monitors commodity futures markets in the Low (wholesale) Zone for the Buy Low—Sell High profit opportunity and the High (retail) Zone for the Sell High—Buy Low profit opportunity. Complete details for these and other exciting low risk, high profit trade setups are included in the book, ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future.

Notables

     >>Christmas Corn spiked at the beginning of the week (up almost 20 points from the prevous week's close!) to end the week down 13 1/2 points.  This is a prime example of why we watch the tools, not the panic.  ChartSmith is continuing to monitor December Corn along with other grains for entry into the wholesale zone.

     >>
We received a call from our publisher this week.  Due to technical difficulties transitioning the book copy & cover to Amazon, the official debut date...More

     >>It's been a busy week in the markets.  Be sure to read our just released SPECIAL REPORT, Sugar-How Sweet It Is and Funny-Mentals on the Trader's BLOG page!



Quote of the Week

Some in clandestine companies combine;
Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line;
With air and empty names beguile the town,
And raise new credits first, then cry'em down;
Divide the empty nothing into shares,
And set the crowd together by the ears. 

~Defoe, from Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds
  


                                                                               Smile

Thanks for joining us for this week's paper trading market update.  As always, we appreciate hearing about your thoughts and ideas, and your trading successes and learnings.  Please feel free to email us anytime at scott@mychartsmith.com.   

To your continued prosperity!

Scott and the ChartSmith Team


ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future...Amazon debut August 25th!

Please read our IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our commodity futures workshops, website, or newsletter shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed during the workshops or on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.


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