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CHARTSMITH
Weekly Market Update
Greetings
fellow traders!
Welcome
to the "paper trading" market update for the week of August 7th, 2009.
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Major price swings were seen in the marketplace this opening week of August. Volatility exacerbated
investors fears of supply & demand issues and global economic concerns. Today's commodity
markets are known for this type of behaviour and this is why we continue to focus on the technicals such as the
zones, the trends, and the tools & indicators.
Of course, this is one of the great things about
commodity futures--the ability for the market to exhibit huge price movement in a short time is the open
door to stellar opportunities! With that said, let's jump in and take a look...
Cotton December Cotton futures closed Friday at 62.43 cents per pound. MACD 12 & 26 are holding
above the zero pivot point but the 4-9-& 18 day MA lines are not coordinated yet. Keep watching for a possible
long-side entry point to develop.
Note: December Cotton is still trying to set up a buy signal. Use extreme caution when trading this
market due to its proximity to the Mid-Zone. Remember, plan your trade and trade your plan!
To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/CT/C9 Eurodollar
The Eurodollar closed out the week at 99.50 basis points. A price channel is in place. We're
still watching for an entry signal to develop utilizing the tools...
>>Another consideration for entering this
market on the short-side is to position a sell order just below the bottom of the channel. When the Eurodollar falls through
this pre-planned point, short positions are initiated at market. Protective stops can be positioned above the top
of the channel to control risk...Review Sideways Channels & Controlling Risk with a Stop Loss
(pages 88 & 132 in the ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial
Future wealthbook.)
Note: although this market is near all-time highs and our trading
plan includes selling the Eurodollar short, please keep in mind that this is not the same as the RSI Sell High-Buy Low
trade setup. This is, for all intents and purposes, the Buy Low-Sell High trade setup turned upside down because
we can quantify maximum risk to 100 basis points which is hypothetically the same as a market in the Low Zone going to absolute
zero.
For further details see the special report, EURODOLLARS—the Perfect Storm?.
To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/GE/99
Lumber
September 09 Lumber closed this week at $197.10 per 1,000 Board Feet.
The $180
support area is still firmly in place on the chart. 4-9-& 18 day MA lines have coordinated. Watching
for MACD to confirm longside entry. Stay tuned... To
view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/LU/99
Natural Gas October
09 Henry Hub Natural Gas closed this week at $3.939/mmBtu on GLOBEX. The MA lines are coordinated and MACD 12/26
are moving closer to the zero pivot point.
We'll keep watching for a buy signal...
To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/NG_/A9
Orange Juice
The
front month of FCOJ, based on Open Interest, is now the November contract. November closed this week at 104.90 cents
per pound on the NYBOT.
Crazy OJ! No, I'm not talking about the ex-football player/felon...I'm talking
about November 2009 FCOJ. It bounced off of its 50% @ 93.50 and ran up all week to a high of 105.50.
Hurricane season on the east coast has been quiet this year due to the weather anomaly, El Nino. But it's far
from over; in fact we are now entering the strong season for hurricanes.
Wait for a pull-back and watch the tools
for a buy signal soon!
Keep watching for a long-side entry point to develop...
To view the chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart/OJ/B9
SUGAR Note that this is the Sell High - Buy Low profit opportunity
as outlined in the ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future wealthbook... March 2010 Sugar closed into
new highs this week at 22.03 cents per pound with an RSI ranking of 86.76. This pricing represents 28-year
highs!
After market closing on Thursday the Relative Strength Index signalled well above 80. With an e-mail
to our broker the same afternoon, our request was to buy the 21.00 strike March 2010 Put Option during Friday's option
market opening in New York. The 21.00 strike price option was at-the-money on Thursday's closing. Friday morning
we received a fill price at 2.22 points (1 point = $1,120) as the market progressed higher, equalling a purchase price of
$2,486.40 per option. This is the first layer-in.
Profit/loss to date at Friday's closing:
<$33.60> per Put Option
As of Friday's closing the RSI ranking has increased to 86.76.
We'll be looking to add a second layer at the beginning of the week...
For detailed information review the
Buy Low-Sell High trade setup as outlined in the ChartSmith-Forging
Your Financial Future wealthbook (Chapter 11, Putting it all Together). Also, Please
see the recently released SPECIAL REPORT, Sugar-How Sweet It Is for further information.
To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=SU&market=SB&cterm=30
U.S.
Dollar Index The US Dollar Index closed up the week at 79.11 points after the release of interest
rate talk. Will it continue to fall deeper into the Low Zone or begin to base-out from here? We'll keep
monitoring for a possible long-side entry point to develop!
To view the daily chart go to: http://futures.tradingcharts.com/chart.php?cbase=US&market=DX&cterm=99 ChartSmith
monitors commodity futures markets in the Low (wholesale) Zone for the Buy Low—Sell High profit opportunity
and the High (retail) Zone for the Sell High—Buy Low profit opportunity. Complete details for these and other exciting low risk, high profit trade setups are included in the book, ChartSmith-Forging Your Financial Future.
Notables
>>Christmas Corn spiked at the beginning of the
week (up almost 20 points from the prevous week's close!) to end the week down 13 1/2 points. This is a prime example
of why we watch the tools, not the panic. ChartSmith is continuing to monitor December Corn along with other grains
for entry into the wholesale zone.
>>We received a call from our publisher this week. Due to technical
difficulties transitioning the book copy & cover to Amazon, the official debut date...More
>>It's been a busy week in the markets. Be sure to read our just released
SPECIAL REPORT, Sugar-How Sweet It Is and Funny-Mentals on the Trader's BLOG page!
Quote of the Week
Some in clandestine companies combine; Erect new stocks to trade beyond the line; With air and empty names beguile the town, And raise new credits first,
then cry'em down; Divide the empty nothing into shares, And set the crowd together by the ears.
~Defoe, from Extraordinary Popular Delusions & the Madness of Crowds

Thanks for joining us for this week's paper trading market update. As always, we appreciate hearing
about your thoughts and ideas, and your trading successes and learnings. Please feel free to email us anytime at scott@mychartsmith.com.
To your continued prosperity!
Scott and the ChartSmith Team

Please read our IMPORTANT NOTICE: Futures and Options trading has large potential
rewards, but also large potential risk. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in
the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. Nothing in our commodity futures
workshops, website, or newsletter shall be deemed a solicitation or an offer to Buy/Sell futures and/or options. No representation
is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed during the workshops
or on our site. Also, the past performance of any trading methodology is not necessarily indicative of future results.
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